2017 Kentucky Derby Longshots

1. 2017 Kentucky Derby Contenders
2. 2017 Kentucky Derby Horse List

Donerail paid $184.90 on a $2 bet to win the Derby in 1913. He's still the highest paying. — There was a time when a 50-to-1 long shot trained by an obscure New Mexico cowboy on crutches shocked the world in the Kentucky Derby. The horse was Mine That Bird, and that was a decade ago.

The Kentucky Derby is still any horse’s race. As post time draws near, let’s discuss the Derby’s longshots. Although these horses are not likely to win, it’s still worth exploring the possibilities.

Another year, another big favorite looms in the Kentucky Derby. Tiz the Law, the Belmont and Travers Stakes winner is likely to be the first odds-on favorite since 1992 when Arazi was sent off at 4-5.

Have any longshots actually won the Kentucky Derby?

Horse racing fans will remember Mine That Bird’s improbable 2009 Kentucky Derby victory. Surging down the homestretch at 50/1 odds, even the announcer fumbled the call. It’s difficult to remember 20 horses, let alone ones not likely to finish in the top 15. For Trainer D. Wayne Lukas and jockey Calvin Borel, the win was never in doubt.

Here’s a look back:

Bob Seltzer’s 2017 Kentucky Derby Longshots

Fast and Accurate, Untrapped, Sonneteer

1. Fast and Accurate – Bet Now – Grade 3 Spiral Stakes winner on March 25, 2017. Also on February 20, 2017 at Gulfstream Park. Trainer Michael J. Maker’s 3 year old might not be favored to win, but is well rested since his last major race. I needed to see Fast and Accurate against other eventual Derby entrants. Competition in his 2 victories was respectable though not the caliber of other favored horses.
2. Untrapped – Bet Now – My favorite longshot this year! Untrapped has significant exposure to his competitors, 6th to Classic Empire at the Arkansas Derby; 3rd at the Rebel Stakes; and 2nd to Girven at the Risen Star Stakes. Untrapped has not shied away from a challenge and shouldn’t be counted out. Trainer Steven M. Asmussen is a fixture at each Kentucky Derby, with multiple horses finishing in front over the years.
3. Sonneteer – Bet Now – A win has been elusive for trainer Keith Desormeaux’s Sonneteer, though not for lack of trying. Lack Untrapped, Sonneteer has raced hard. He’s finished 2nd in four races, notably to Malagacy in the Rebel Stakes on March 18, 2017. He was 4th to Classic Empire at the Arkansas Derby, just behind another longshot Lookin at Lee. I’m not sure if the Derby’s length is a good fit. Sonneteer’s best races come in at 1mi- 1mi 1/16. The Derby’s 1mi 1/4 distance might be a touch too long.

Recommended Longshot Superfecta Picks

Mix any of my horses into a conservative trifecta box or superfecta part wheel.

Bet a 7 horse superfecta part wheel, placing a longshot with at least 2 other horses in the third and fourth keys. Here’s one idea I had:

Bob Seltzer’s 7 horse Derby Superfecta Part Wheel Longshot Special

2017 Kentucky Derby Contenders

1. Key 1: Classic Empire, Irish War Cry, Girvin
2. Key 2: Classic Empire, Irish War Cry, Girvin, Gunnevera
3. Key 3: Always Dreaming, Practical Joke, Untrapped
4. Key 4: Classic Empire, Always Dreaming, Untrapped

Total Cost: $48, $1 per combination or $4.80, 10 cents per combination
Note: Churchill downs sets the minimum superfecta to $1 on Kentucky Derby Day. Our online racebooks may have a 10 cent special, visit now!

Here are the latest Derby Odds, Bet Now!

2017 Kentucky Derby Horse List

Good Luck from Bob!